Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 12.877478 14.708683 16.691657 18.996489 21.599725 24.446850 27.794681
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 10.049870 12.482741 15.327244 18.890586 23.226794 28.323696 34.760449
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.426573 11.046306 14.263460 18.490307 23.881860 30.512164 39.266236
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.367660 10.128080 13.667385 18.515212 24.957137 33.194787 44.495580
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.662873 9.542863 13.375180 18.815185 26.300968 36.196610 50.219164
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 6.032688 8.971355 13.016750 18.949028 27.374931 38.852461 55.598287
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.416954 8.343348 12.501151 18.784997 27.975404 40.844901 60.131557
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.990815 7.940232 12.254546 18.958176 29.028881 43.491021 65.699481
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.736606 7.764736 12.314620 19.566604 30.731825 47.139016 72.900194
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.316323 7.288499 11.874215 19.368945 31.189437 48.955425 77.461932
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.764610 6.549355 10.961816 18.356936 30.304652 48.669598 78.779628
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.581492 6.396638 10.962884 18.786246 31.694812 51.928979 85.732094
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.397035 6.231544 10.939758 19.188443 33.091458 55.318717 93.159040
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.117266 5.876595 10.572315 18.987994 33.481869 57.120990 98.139206
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.838972 5.497027 10.128814 18.615750 33.542392 58.363543 102.235036
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.650771 5.263842 9.919991 18.630973 34.256158 60.713997 108.291057
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.523285 5.131833 9.878931 18.935989 35.485373 63.988615 116.077536
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.381860 4.960115 9.750821 19.069564 36.409899 66.777984 123.159353
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.212841 4.719042 9.474250 18.904898 36.775686 68.598077 128.617125
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.101069 4.582134 9.383067 19.079005 37.768061 71.568980 136.262546
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.049280 4.563101 9.516861 19.691132 39.613057 76.163865 147.072438
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.909056 4.347086 9.246487 19.492272 39.894814 77.905009 152.715559
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.694226 3.952727 8.588611 18.474171 38.520018 76.486226 152.376704